Market Dive

US NFP beat expectations in August, but markets remain focused on CPI. See what the jobs report, Fed policy and Treasury yields could mean for gold.

US Treasury yields remain high as term premium, fiscal risks and debt pressures rise. Could higher borrowing costs trigger a US debt crisis? 

US Treasury yields spiked as buybacks offered short relief, but debt pressure, AI capex and gold volatility keep bond stress in focus. 

US July CPI cooled as Fed rate-hike bets faded, putting gold and tech stocks in focus as markets reassess real yields and liquidity. 

July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, weakening Q3 rate-hike bets as labor demand cooled and USDJPY faced intervention-driven pressure. 

US Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5%, but resilient consumer spending and stronger domestic demand suggest recession fears may be overdone. 

A second oil blockade could push crude above $120 as Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea risks threaten supply, inflation and Fed rate expectations.

US June CPI cooled below expectations as inflation pressure eased beyond energy. Rate-hike fears may still be overpriced despite oil and Middle East risks.

A stronger yen, BOJ rate hike risk and carry trade unwinds could tighten liquidity and pressure the global market rally in 2026. 

At mid-year 2026, gold is caught between US dollar strength, Fed rate-hike expectations and central bank demand. Here’s why gold may stay range-bound in H2.